The 82nd Annual Academy Awards are coming around on March 7, so it’s due time to look at who will likely win. These are my picks for who will go home with a little golden statue at the Oscars.

Best picture

The choice to expand the field of five best picture nominees to 10 may have been an attempt to open up the competition, but this year’s contest for the big one comes down to two films: The Hurt Locker and Avatar. As for Up in the Air and Precious, both of these films peaked too early. The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, A Serious Man and Up are just glad to be nominated.

The possible upset is Inglourious Basterds. Already with the Screen Actors Guild best ensemble prize and backed by Harvey Weinstein, the film may be too pulpy and light-hearted to win.

Now, The Hurt Locker seems to be the film to beat. It has picked up awards from the Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, British Academy of Film and Televison Arts and countless guild awards for best picture. The only big one it didn’t win was the Golden Globe, which was picked up by its chief competitor. Avatar has 2.5 billion in the bank and a legion of fans to back it. Both are excellent films. Both will definitely win multiple Oscars.

I’m going with the masses and against critical opinion and saying that Avatar will win. Still, don’t be surprised if The Hurt Locker continues its winning streak and picks up this top prize.

My pick: Avatar 

Best actor

Can anyone who’s seen Crazy Heart actually say that Jeff Bridges isn’t fantastic? Colin Firth and Morgan Freeman have little to no chance. George Clooney is included just to add to the evening’s star power. And although Jeremy Renner could pull an Adrien Brody and win for The Hurt Locker, this is likely The Dude’s year.

My pick: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart 

Best actress

This is the most open-ended of the acting races, likely coming down to either Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock. That’s unfortunate because both Carey Mulligan in An Education and Gabourey Sidibe in Precious are excellent. And no one has seen The Last Station, the film for which Helen Mirren is nominated. In the end, this year will probably come up Bullock.

My pick: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side 

Best supporting actor

Matt Damon? Woody Harrelson? Christopher Plummer? Stanley Tucci? Sorry boys, this is Christoph Waltz’s award for his brilliant turn as Hans Landa, “The Jew Hunter” in Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds.

My pick: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds 

Best supporting actress

Another shoo-in, Mo’Nique is impossible to beat for her role as the monstrous, abusive mother in Precious.

My pick: Mo’Nique in Precious 

Best director

This will likely turn out to be The Hurt Locker’s biggest award of the evening. History will be made, as Kathryn Bigelow becomes the first woman to ever win best director. That’s too bad for her ex-husband James Cameron, her only real competition. Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino are just glad they got recognized.

My pick: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker 

Best original screenplay

This will come down to a tough contest between Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker and Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds. If The Hurt Locker fails to win best picture, this may become a consolation prize for it, but I bet Tarantino will win his second trophy for his ballsy reimagining of the Second World War.

My pick: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds 

Best adapted screenplay

This will turn out to be Up in the Air’s only win of the evening, and a well-deserved win at that. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s adaptation of Walter Kirn’s novel is as timely as they come.

My pick: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air 

Best cinematography

Avatar will likely win for its stunning visuals and brilliant action sequences. The Hurt Locker is also a definite possibility, but don’t discount a surprise win by the Michael Haneke’s German entry, The White Ribbon.

My pick: Avatar 

For the rest of the categories, I will just give my picks to win and omit any explanation that really amounts to mere guesswork. Also, the short film categories are excluded. 

Best editing

The Hurt Locker 

Best art direction

Avatar 

Best costume design

Nine 

Best makeup

Star Trek 

Best score

Up 

Best song

“The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart 

Best sound mixing

Avatar 

Best sound editing

Avatar 

Best visual effects

Avatar 

Best animated feature film

Up 

Best foreign language film

The White Ribbon 

Best documentary

The Cove 

We’ll see how correct these picks turn out to be on March 7. Let’s just hope they can fit in some performance capture technology into the show so that Sam Worthington’s Na’vi avatar can accept the Oscar for best visual effects. Regardless, it should prove to be an entertaining show with Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin as co-hosts. Official Oscar ballots are available at the Academy Awards’ website.