Barack Obama faces an uphill re-election battle against Republican Mitt Romney.

MARLENE MORRISON

I know what you’re thinking. We are all thinking the same thing: is it possible that Mitt Romney could win the 2012 American presidential election?

Sorry to break it to you, but there is more than a slight probability that we will be referring to President Romney in the near future.

How can this be?

When Barack Obama ran for president in 2008 his platform was “I am the antidote to George W. Bush,” which arguably contributed to his popularity and led to his election. Not surprisingly, Romney is doing the exact same thing, positioning himself as the answer to all of Obama’s failings.

During his four years in office, Obama has done very little to curb military spending or dramatically change U.S. Foreign Policy.

Is Romney capable of following through? He believes he can. Voters so far seem to agree with him.

Then you have ongoing jabs at Obama’s legitimacy, claims that the president is not a real American. While the once-popular birther movement has been largely discredited, it is still prevalent enough that Romney made a joke during a recent stump speech about never having been asked to show his birth certificate.

One would think that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as “Obamacare,” would win Obama supporters, but this move toward universal health care has alienated more voters than expected because to some, the choice of whether or not to have health insurance is a god-given freedom that should not be government-mandated.

Democrats are typically favoured by the minority communities, particularly the Hispanic community. However, more undocumented immigrants have been deported during Obama’s term than during Bush’s eight years as president. Though he passed the Deferred Deportation Act on June 15, which is largely seen as a means of regaining Latino support, the Hispanic community is uncertain about whether this justifies a second term for Obama.

The Deferred Deportation Act is a scaled-down version of the infamous DREAM Act. Whereas the DREAM Act was a path to legalization for individuals that had entered the country illegally as minors, the Deferred Deportation Act is not a path to legalization. Rather, this legislation buys qualifying individuals the peace of mind that they will not be deported for two years.

Perhaps the one place there is still a large base of support for Obama is in the LGBTQ community. By very publicly declaring his support for same-sex marriage, Obama garnered both significant media coverage and good will from the LGBTQ community and everyone who supports same-sex marriage. Though this is a monumental shift in acceptance for the LGBTQ community in the U.S., Obama’s stance on gay marriage will further alienate some voters, especially the Christian base the Republican party counts on.

Yet the most important determining factor is and always will be the economy. Fiscal conservatives scold Obama for a high unemployment rate, which currently sits at 8.3 per cent, and for an unbalanced budget. More U.S. workers sit unemployed and in debt than any other time since the Great Depression. Voters are not too concerned about the fact that Obama inherited these economic problems from Bush; their concern is that Obama did not fix their economic woes.

The business community seems to share this concern, particularly the small business sector.

In mid-July, Obama gave a speech that was intended to point out how government helps business get off the ground but in which he said, “If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

Small business owners at the Republican National Convention took that statement to mean that government is completely responsible for business growth, which affirmed a common right-wing fear of Obama’s “socialist” inclinations. There was an immense backlash against Obama from some members of this sector, who responded, “Yes, we did build it.”

But what can Mitt Romney offer? The logic among Republicans is that since Romney ran a successful company, Bain Capital, he can help the U.S. economy thrive. Because naturally running a country is just like running a private corporation. Romney supporters smugly present the Republican as a Harvard-educated business genius.

There has been a media outcry demanding that Romney release more of his income tax forms. He has released one year’s worth of returns but refuses to show the public anything more. This is especially damning as full disclosure of income tax returns is a tradition started by Mitt’s father, George Romney, during the 1968 presidential campaign.

What Romney has that Obama once had is the promise of change. The country is desperate for a leader who can rejuvenate the economy. Romney backers are throwing hundreds of millions into his campaign with the hopes that he will win in November. Undoubtedly, the more money a candidate has for their campaign, the higher the chances are that they will win.

Backers like Condoleezza Rice, Donald Trump and Clint Eastwood demonstrate that Romney has support in three key areas: Washington, the private sector and Hollywood. Meanwhile, Obama’s approval rating is at 46 per cent. No other president has been re-elected with an approval rating lower than 50 per cent so close to election time.

Obama purports to be a president of the people. But the people aren’t too concerned about social justice, one of Obama’s strongest arguments for re-election. The people want a booming economy and a lower unemployment rate.

Romney’s platform is all about how he can boost the economy through his small government measures. Whether he can follow through or not is another issue. However, it appears the country is not willing to wager on a president who has failed to take them out of the economic disaster of 2008 and are willing to bet on someone who has big promises.

Is Romney capable of following through? He believes he can. Voters so far seem to agree with him.

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Photo: Supplied