In the wake of reports about Saskatchewan’s recent economic and population growth, a University of Saskatchewan professor cautions that the numbers are not as impressive as they may seem.

In an Oct. 25 op-ed published in the StarPhoenix, Saskatoon Mayor Don Atchison claimed that “the prosperity and strong economic growth Saskatoon is now experiencing are here for the long term. The forces are aligned to continue to build Saskatoon’s success for at least the next 25 years. That’s not just wishful thinking, but is an economic fact.”

U of S economics professor Eric Howe mentioned Atchison’s article with a small laugh.

“There’s no such thing as an economic fact,” he said.

“The boom [Saskatchewan is experiencing] is happening for a really straightforward reason,” Howe continued. “Saskatchewan is experiencing a resource boom.”

Saskatchewan is rich in natural resources, from potash to oil. It is also a major contributor to Canada’s status as the single largest uranium supplying country; Saskatchewan alone supplies almost one third of the world’s uranium, according to the Government of Saskatchewan web site.

When these resources are in demand or expensive, Saskatchewan sees an influx of money, jobs and people. All of that is happening right now, and has led many people, including Atchison, to declare the era of a prosperous Saskatchewan. But Howe says this has all happened before.

“Saskatchewan is subject to these resource booms,” he said, citing the mid-1970s, when the price of wheat rose drastically, as well as the petroleum boom of the late ’60s.

“One of the constants of these booms is lots of people will say they’re going to last forever,” Howe added. “But they don’t. The word ‘boom’ is followed by ‘bust,’ and that’s what happens.”

Population booms often go hand-in-hand with economic growth, and Saskatchewan has seen that in this most recent boom as well. However, despite the fact that immigrants are currently looking at Saskatchewan as a place to live alongside larger, more populous areas, Howe says this too will pass.

“People move here for jobs,” Howe explained. “When the jobs go away, the people go away too. Reading in the media right now, you’d think the gates had opened and that immigrants were coming to the province in great numbers.

“Saskatchewan’s share of Canada’s population was 3.02 per cent before this boom,” said Howe. “It has now gone up to 3.04 per cent.”

Jeff Lindgren, planning and policy manager for the Saskatoon Regional and Economic Development Agency, disagrees with Howe’s diagnosis.

“I’m not as solid on the long-term projections,” Lindgren said, referring once again to Atchison’s rosy view. “But definitely over the short term, say the next five years, the Conference Board of Canada has us expected to add just about 30,000 people to the Saskatoon” metropolitan area.

“And we do see that continuing into the future.”

Lindgren added that while he could not comment on the specifics of potash and other resource projects since he does not work in those industries, he believes many of the projects currently beginning are “definitely very long term, and they’re typically very stable projects.”

But Howe says even here, the seemingly good news does not necessarily translate into jobs and money for people on the ground.

“Resource sectors like potash are extremely labour-intensive when they are expanding,” Howe said, “but extremely, extremely capital-intensive when they are operating.”

In other words, after the initial construction phase for such projects, the influx of people who came to Saskatchewan for better job prospects can find themselves out of work yet again. When that happens, there is no guarantee they will stay in Saskatchewan.

“We have a really good quality of life package here,” Lindgren offered as a counter. “We have a number of things to offer people.”

Lindgren noted air quality, public spaces and a diverse economy as reasons people will want to put down roots in Saskatchewan even if the current economic boom slows. But Howe’s parting words provided a strong second opinion.

“Why is it that people only move here if they have good jobs available?” he asked. “Well, come February, that will be kind of obvious.”

—
Graphic: Brianna Whitmore/The Sheaf